UFC 211 Betting Picks: Brazilian Upsets

Big card tonight, we finally have some titles on the line and not to spoil my picks but I think we may see both of them change hands. Let’s first talk about JDS Miocic. Now I’m no MMA Analyst but I reckon if you are looking to predict the outcome of a rematch then a good place to start is the first fight. Junior Dos Santos won that first fight by unanimous decision; and statistics tell us that MMA rematches are, more often than not, won by the victor of the first fight. That whole, “Past performance is not indicative of future success” idiom that guru idiots like to throw around is mostly bullshit when it comes to fist fighting. But if you take a gander at the oddsmakers you’ll see JDS is not the odds on favorite, so why is that? What’s changed exactly?

Well almost three years have past and in that time JDS has been much less active; only fighting once in 2015 and once again in 2016. Stipe on the other hand went on a tear winning four fight and most importantly securing and defending the Heavyweight title. His resume has certainly looked better than JDS as of late, but this isn’t a job interview at Sizzer it’s a giant-sized man fight and I still give JDS the edge in this matchup.

JDS outstruck Stipe at range in their first encounter, defending 17 of his 18 takedown attempts. Whereas Stipe’s best successes came in the clinch and he’ll need a lot more clinch work and dirty boxing if he is going to beat JDS tonight. I think both guys are delightful, but money is apathetic and mine is on JDS to reclaim the belt.

2.5 Units JDS +122

Demian Maia is a lunatic. He should be fighting for a world title but for some reason he took this dangerous fight with a young contender instead. He has nothing to gain from it so there must be more going on behind the scenes we’re not privy too because even Tyron Woodley questioned this move on MMA Unfiltered.

“Unfortunately for Maia, he accepted the fight the week of me and Wonderboy’s fight. In my personal opinion, bad move. Wait and see how the fight went. If nobody came out of the fight hurt, a clear winner, not another draw, you’re already in a position to fight for a world title. Why would you put yourself up against the worst possible matchup outside of a title fight?

The line has been dead even on these two and I’ve waffled back and forth all week. Of the three predictions I’m giving tonight this is by far the one I’m least secure in. But god dammit Maia is on a six fight win streak and at 39 years of age has been dubbed Joyce gracie 2.0, the guy is a killer. Masvidal loves to put on a show, loves to press the action, and I think he lacks the caution to fight a methodical rangey fight against Maia. Plus I’ve been reading about the new transitions Maia has been concocting in training and I’m sold on the human snake. I think he submits Masvidal or at the very least backpacks him for three rounds.

1 Unit Maia +105

Finally the big bet tonight is on Andrade. I haven’t poured through the stats to see if this belief has any merit, but I intrinsically favor Lesbians in women’s MMA. Especially when they look like they have more testosterone than I do. I think Andrade can succeed where Gadelha failed and smother Joanna so she doesn’t have space to land her 14 punch combos. But most importantly Andrade loves chicks, I love chicks, chicks love money.

4 units Andrade +170 (Wait to bet this one as the line should be close to +200 come fight time.)

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