UFC 209 Betting Picks: Underdogs All Day

The UFC 209 prelims are an hour away which means millions of people are frantically refreshing the site looking for my picks. So let’s get right into it because unlike Khabib’s kidney’s my bet picks never fail.

We have one prop pick from the prelims, and that’s not just because it involves one of the only fighters on the prelims I’ve actually heard of. What MMA fan isn’t familiar with The Hand of Godbeer or Daniel Daddy Long Legs? That fights a real mismatch in terms of nicknames but it’s not the fight we’re betting. We’re betting that Mirsad Bektic finishes Elkins inside the distance at +159. As for the main card you already know my thoughts on Hunt vs Overeem if you read my last post. I love being stressed out for 15 minutes so I’m taking overeem by decision at +341. The girls got the bump to the main card and I’m taking Cooper by decision +146 against the UFC newcomer Calvillo. Having just 3 pro fights before jumping straight onto the main card of a UFC PPV is a tough transition and I believe in UFC jitters.

That brings us to Rashad / Kelly and I think kelly is a live dog in this one. Rashad had a tough time getting back here, it’s been almost a year since he’s fought, over 3 years since he’s won, and this will be his first fight at middleweight. He looked miserable making the weight cut on embedded and despite Kelly being a huge step down in competition I think there’s way too many unknowns with Rashad. I hope he proves me wrong but at the current odds I have to take Kelly by Decision +330.

Lastly we’ve got the Woodley Wonderboy rematch which is now the most exciting fight on the card. A lot of people believe Wonderboy did not fight up to his potential in their last outing and have made him the betting favorite going into tonight. But personally I think when you have a rematch against a guy with a weird Karate style like Machida or Wonderboy it always favors their opponent. Woodley has had 25 minutes to adapt and get a feel for the rhythm and distance of Wonderboy and as a result I see this being an easier fight for him than last time. Also considering the fact that Woodley won the last fight on one judge’s scorecard I see it strange that Wonderboy is favored in the rematch. Should be a close fight but I took Woodley early at +130. I’m betting no odds-on favorites tonight which means I’m probably an idiot so take my picks with a gram of salt.

In Summation – The Official MMA Bum 209 Guaranteed-Money Picks:

Bektic wins inside distance +159*
Overeem wins by 3 round decision +341*
Cooper wins by 3 round decision +146
Kelly wins by 3 round decision +330

Tyron Woodley +130* vs Stephen Thompson

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